To my fellow Kamala Harris supporters . . . democracy did not die today. The result of this particular election is disappointing. It says something about the state of our country that enough voters in enough states were persuaded by Donald Trump’s lies. They were seduced by his warnings that the radical Socialist Democrats were coming for their guns and to turn their children gay and trans. They were mesmerized by his promises to make the country great “again” by telling them that we had fallen into ruin over the past four years and that he was the only person who could save us all from disaster. It tells us that there needs to be some changes in the way we (and I mean all of us on both sides of the aisle) communicate and behave in the post-Trump era, which begins today. But democracy will go on. There will be mid-term elections in two years. We survived Trump’s first term and we will survive another. There will be chaos. There will be embarrassment. Hopefully there will not be more Supreme Court nominations (perhaps the Democrats take the Senate in 2026 and can block any nomination the way the Republicans blocked Merrick Garland). But no mater what, democracy and the nation will continue.

We need to think long and hard about why Kamala lost. We need to face the fact that half the country thinks that at least some of the core policies and philosophies of the Democratic party are so distasteful that they would rather vote for a convicted felon than Kamala. That should lead to some soul-searching.

We will need to deal with the fact that the standards of conduct for our national politicians have now hit rock bottom. It is now acceptable to lie about everything. It is acceptable to spread known lies over and over if the lies convince your supporters to hate or fear the other side. It is acceptable to ignore facts and claim that news you don’t like is “fake” without any consequences. Fact-checking a candidate and exposing their lies does not matter. Serial philandering, multiple divorces, multiple convictions, civil liability for sexual assault and then defamation by repeating the lie that the successful female accuser is a liar is acceptable. Paying off a porn start to hide information about an illicit sexual liaison is acceptable. Hawking cheap merchandise and NFT trading cards to your supporters to take their hard-earned money when you’re supposed to be a billionaire is acceptable. Tweeting (or posting) vitriol about your opponents is acceptable. Saying the press should be attacked or killed is acceptable. Giving your opponents derisive nicknames like a schoolyard bully is acceptable. This says a lot about what we have become as a nation, but that’s the reality. Maybe only DJT can get away with this behavior. Let’s hope.

But democracy will go on. J.D. Vance will probably be the Republican nominee in four years. Let’s hope the Democrats can find a candidate who can change the tone, unite the nation, and bring sanity back to politics. But that’s four years from now. 

The existential threat to democracy was not Donald Trump’s election, it was Trump’s defeat by a close margin, which would have thrown us into another round of false fraud claims and half the country claiming that the President is not legitimate. (This will not happen now, since the Democrats, while unhappy, will not file baseless challenges, nor will they cry fraud or refuse to recognize the legitimacy of the new president. Kamala, as is her nature, will gracefully conceded and call for unity and calm. Because she cares more about the stability of our government than about her own success. The same would not have been the case if the outcome were reversed, but that is now irrelevant.) We will not be thrown into national protests and nobody will storm the Capital on January 6^th. So, our democracy is not in peril yet. Be strong. Have faith. Don’t stop voting.

Now, for my friends who are Trump supporters . . . Yes, you are still my friends. I believe you to be misled and gullible, but our political differences have never kept us from being friends or having respect for one another. I hope this can continue, and I hope that you and your friends will come to understand that I am not a socialist demon bent on evicting you from your home so I can give it to a transgendered illegal immigrant. I hope you realize that I am not trying to raise your taxes or corrupt your children. I am not hoping for higher inflation, higher prices, and higher healthcare costs. I am not looking forward to our troops being sucked into foreign wars. We all want the same things. Peace, prosperity, and a bright future.

                I don’t believe that you are, at heart, a bigot or a White supremacist or that you will look with glee at hooded hooligans beating minority citizens and immigrants with impunity under a Trump regime. I don’t believe that you hate me, or hate all citizens who hail from non-European backgrounds. I don’t believe you prefer Donald Trump’s manners or behavior. I don’t believe you really want him, but you want the things you think he and his Republican allies will give you.

                But let’s make a list of what you should expect – and demand from your our new President over the next few years. These are the things he promised you. These are the things you should hold him to. If he fails to deliver, it should make you wonder if he was lying to you all along and it should make you wonder if continuing to support his MAGA program is the right long-term choice.

                In the first three months of his new term, you should expect:

1. The introduction of legislation to make all tips, overtime pay, and social security benefits exempt from federal tax. This is easy. All it takes is someone to write the bill, which Trump should push for all his Republican supplicants to support. The GOP will control both houses of congress, so it would be a simple thing. It will pass with wide bi-partisan support. If it doesn’t happen, you should immediately wonder how you fell for it when he promised this – his only real policy promise during the entire campaign.
2. The imposition of tariffs on foreign-manufactured goods – at least those from China and Mexico. Again, this is an easy lift for DJT. But you have to pair this (if it happens) with . . . .

2A – the tariffs will immediately result in (i) protection for US jobs, causing US jobs to grow, particularly in manufacturing; and (ii) lower prices for US goods. The tariffs, by themselves, accomplish nothing if they don’t result in positive economic change.

3. Lower prices and a lower inflation rate. Whether the result of his magical tariffs or some other actions, DJT has promised to deliver lower grocery prices and lower inflation rates. Not just the continuation of the current healthy economic growth and moderate inflation, but LOWER inflation and LOWER prices. He promised this, and said it would be “easy” to deliver. If he fails, then you have to wonder why you voted for him because you were sure he would “fix” the economy.

4. The closure of the southern border and the end of illegal immigrants coming into the country. And not just by passing the same things as the bi-partisan immigration bill that Trump killed this spring so that he could have an issue to run on. He has to have some new ideas and push for a complete shutdown of illegal migration and the deportation of illegals in the country. He promised this. He said we were in crisis and only he could solve the problems. Well, let’s see him do it. And do it without horrific consequences, both on the US economy (from the departure of this labor force) and without excessive human suffering. (And let’s make sure he has a plan for the US citizen children of the illegals he plans to deport.)

5. The end to the war/crisis in Gaza. He says he can fix it. Let’s see him do it. So many, particularly in Michigan, voted for him because they believed he would be a better choice for Palestinians. Let’s see if that pans out.

6. The end to the war in Ukraine. He says it will happen. All he has to do is call Putin. Let’s see what happens — if he’s the foreign policy deal-maker he says he is.

7. A tax cut that will put more money in the pockets of the middle class (along with the rich). Trump told his supporters for four years that he would deliver tax cuts to his working-class supporters. The people he hit up daily for $5 contributions and who bought his trading cards to fund his campaign and his legal defense fund. The people who came to his rallies and shouted praise to their savior. Let’s make sure he delivers – not only for his rich buddies, but for the middle class. He promised.

If President Trump delivers on these promises, then you should be very happy you elected him.

                Here’s what I think will really happen:

1. Trump will forget about the tax-free overtime, tips, and social security payments. The negative impact on revenue will interfere with his plans to give a tax break to corporations. Republicans in congress will say it’s not a good idea and he will drop it. Sorry.
2. Trump will try to push through his favorite pet idea – the tariffs – but they will immediately cause prices to rise, the stock market to sink, and he will realize that China putting retaliatory tariffs on US agriculture will be far worse for us than limiting exports will be for them. He will back away from the tariffs (or maybe he’ll be convinced not to do it at all).
3. The rate of inflation, which is really the result of factors over which the President has little control, will continue to hover around the current 2.3% rate. The economy will chug along with positive growth, low unemployment (the current 4.1% rate is a historic low), and the stock market will stabilize or even rise in anticipation of lower interest rates and a tax cut for corporations. Prices will not go down. Inflation will not go significantly down – and if it does it will not be due to anything Trump does. Trump may reign over a healthy economy, because he is inheriting one – much like he did in 2017. But his promises of LOWER prices and lower inflation will not happen.
4. Trump will take some immediate actions and make a big show about “solving” the immigrant crisis, but it will end up being nothing more than the same things that the bi-partisan bill would have accomplished nine months ago. He will not execute mass deportations because it is not that easy. It would take billions of dollars and the hiring of thousands of enforcement agents. It won’t happen. Trump will take credit for having done it, but it won’t actually happen. The immigration “crisis” will seem to fade because FOX News will stop running false stories that exaggerate the impact of immigrants on crime (there really isn’t one). The absence of planted stores about immigrant crime will allow Trump to claim that he brought it down – but it will be the same as it has been – very low. When the statistics are compiled for 2025, there will not be significantly fewer illegal immigrants crossing the border than in 2024.
5.  The Middle East will still be a shit show. Trump will do nothing to solve the situation in Gaza nor avoid war between Israel and Iran.
6.  The war in Ukraine will not end due to any action by Trump. If anything, his support for Putin and desire for Ukraine to surrender will make things worse.
7.  There will be a tax cut pushed through congress by the Republicans, but it will benefit mostly large corporations and rich citizens. Elon Musk will praise it. Middle-class Americans will not see a significant cut in taxes, nor a significant increase in buying power.

Trump will claim that he has succeeded in making America “Great” again, despite not following through on any of his promises. He will say he’s the greatest President in history, while berating the press and foreign allies and praising dictators. He will be (rightly) accused of multiple conflicts of interest as his personal businesses benefit from his Presidential actions (for which he has immunity now). His crypto currency business will make him billions, until all the small investors he induced to buy will lose everything, while Trump walks away with all the profits.

                One year from now . . . and two years from now . . . look back and tell me whether Trump fulfilled his pledges. Or, maybe he was just bullshitting everyone – saying anything to curry favor and get himself elected. Telling lies without remorse. Pulling a fast one for his own personal gain.

                Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I am, at least about some of this.

                Hindsight is always 20/20. Let’s see how I do on foresight.